Here are 30 all-time men's best 100m  (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres
 and  http://www.alltime-athletics.com/m_100ok.htm )
        1      9.58       +0.9    Usain Bolt          16.08.2009
        2      9.63       +1.5    Usain Bolt          05.08.2012
        3      9.69       ±0.0    Usain Bolt          16.08.2008
        3      9.69       +2.0    Tyson Gay           20.09.2009
        5      9.71       +0.9    Tyson Gay           16.08.2009
        6      9.72       +1.7    Usain Bolt          31.05.2008
        6      9.72       +0.2    Asafa Powell        02.09.2008
        8      9.74       +1.7    Asafa Powell        09.09.2007
        9      9.75       +1.1    Yohan Blake         29.06.2012
        9      9.75       +1.5    Yohan Blake         05.08.2012
        11     9.76       +1.8    Usain Bolt          03.05.2008
        11     9.76       +1.3    Usain Bolt          16.09.2011
        11     9.76       -0.1    Usain Bolt          31.05.2012
        14     9.77       +1.6    Asafa Powell        14.06.2005
        14     9.77       +1.5    Asafa Powell        11.06.2006
        14     9.77       +1.0    Asafa Powell        18.08.2006
        14     9.77       +1.6    Tyson Gay           28.06.2008
        14     9.77       -1.3    Usain Bolt          05.09.2008
        14     9.77       +0.9    Asafa Powell        07.09.2008
        14     9.77       +0.4    Tyson Gay           10.07.2009
        21     9.78       ±0.0    Asafa Powell        09.09.2007
        21     9.78       -0.4    Tyson Gay           13.08.2010
        21     9.78       +0.9    Nesta Carter        29.08.2010
        21     9.78       +1.0    Asafa Powell        30.06.2011
        25     9.79       +0.1    Maurice Greene      16.06.1999
        25     9.79       -0.2    Usain Bolt          17.07.2009
        25     9.79       +0.1    Tyson Gay           27.08.2010
        25     9.79       +1.1    Tyson Gay           04.06.2011
        25     9.79       +0.6    Usain Bolt          07.06.2012
        25     9.79       +1.5    Justin Gatlin       05.08.2012
 The question arises whether the Bolt's record 9.58 can be beaten before 2020?
We can estimate the probability of this event with Maple. Let's start.
> with(Statistics):
> P := Array([9.58, 9.63,  9.69$2 , 9.71, 9.72$2, 9.74, 9.75$2, 9.76$3, 9.77$7,
 9.78$4, 9.79$6]):
> X := RandomVariable(EmpiricalDistribution(P)):
> 1 - CDF(X, 9.58);
              0.9666666667  
It means the probability of the event {The run time is greater than 9.58, but less than or equal to
9.79 } equals 0.9666666667. On average, we observe 4 such runs during the year.
Therefore, 4*8 = 32 fast runs are expected in 2013 - 2020. The probability
that the record by Usain Bolt will not be beaten up to 2020 equals 0.9666666667^32 = 0.3379525924.