# Question:What am I doing wrong in trying to solve this system of ODEs in Maple?

## Question:What am I doing wrong in trying to solve this system of ODEs in Maple?

Maple 2023

Hello. Can anybody point out to me what I am doing wrong below? I'm trying to solve the online model 4.1 of the book "An introduction to infectious disease modelling" by E. Vynnycky & R.G. White (2010). But all the information is below.

Where I get errors from the code below is right at the bottom, in dsolve:

# My Maple 2023 code:

restart;

# Initial values:

Sus_0 := total_popn - Infectious_0 - Immune_0:
Preinfectious_0 := 0:
Infectious_0 := 1:
Immune_0 := total_popn*prop_immune_0:

# Transmission- and infection-related parameters:

preinfectious_period := 8:
infectious_period := 7:
R_zero := 13:
f := 1/preinfectious_period:
r := 1/infectious_period:
beta := R_zero/(total_popn*infectious_period):
prop_immune_0 := 0:

# Demography-related parameters:

total_popn := 100000:

# Useful statistics:

new_infns := beta*Susc*Infe:
new_infectious := Prei*f:
prop_sus = Susc/total_popn:
R_n := R_zero*prop_sus:
propn_imm := 1 - prop_sus:
sum_pop := Susc + Prei + Infe + Immu:
ln_infectious := ln(Infe):
ln_cum_infe := ln(Cum_Infe):
ln_new_infectious := ifelse(0 < t, ln(new_infectious), 0):

# Defining the system of ODEs:

sys_ode:={
diff(Susc(t),t)=-beta*Susc(t)*Infe(t),
diff(Prei(t),t)=beta*Susc(t)*Infe(t)- Prei(t)*f,
diff(Immu(t),t)=Infe(t)*r,
diff(Cum_Infe(t),t)= Prei(t)*f,
diff(Infe(t),t)=Prei(t)*f-Infe(t)*r,
}:

ics:={
Susc(0)=Sus_0,
Infe(0)=Infectious_0,
Immu(0)=Immune_0,
Prei(0)=Preinfectious_0,
Cum_Infe(0)=Infectious_0
}:

Solution1:=dsolve({sys_ode,ics},type=numeric);
# HERE I GET THIS ERROR MESSAGE: "Error, (in dsolve/numeric/process_input) system must be entered as a set/list of

# expressions/equations"

Solution2:=dsolve({sys_ode,ics});
# HERE I GET THIS ERROR MESSAGE: "Error, (in dsolve) invalid arguments; expected an equation, or a set or list of them,

# received: {{diff(Immu(t),t) = 1/7*Infe(t), diff(Infe(t),t) = # 1/8*Prei(t)-1/7*Infe(t), diff(Prei(t),t) =

# 13/700000*Susc(t)*Infe(t)-1/8*Prei(t), diff(Susc(t),t) = -13/700000*Susc(t)*Infe(t), diff(Cum_Infe(t),t) = # 1/8*Prei(t)}}"

MY QUESTION: Can anybody tell me what I'm doing wrong in Solution1 and Solution2?

Best wishes and many thanks!

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